Do NOT Draft These Rookies in Your 2021 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft
TBH, there really aren't a lot of picks that I don't like in the first round of rookie drafts this year. I'm not crazy high on drafting Kyle Pitts before like the 1.07 but can't get mad at drafting talent. Five top-15 QBs drafted, all belong in the top 12-14 picks. Chase, Smith, Waddle, Najee, Etienne, Bateman and the first round is pretty much a wash.
The second round is where the value starts to tail off big time and reaches start to happen.
It's a lot more important to hit on your early rookie picks than it is to miss on a 3rd rounder. You have to think of it relatively to other league mates. You missing on your first, but your league-mate hitting on his, puts him way ahead. Same thing with season-long. Last year someone took Derrick Henry, you took Josh Jacobs, only one of yall locking up a playoff spot.
Regardless you need to know who to stay away from in the middle rounds, bc those hits can add up and give you depth and dynasty is all about that depth. Listen your girl won't tell you the hard truth, she saying "depth dont matter baby", uncle nicky is telling u the truth - it's all about depth.
Kenneth Gainwell - Philadelphia Eagles (Memphis)
Current ADP: 2.11 (Superflex)
NFL Draft - Round 5, Pick 6 (150)
I knew there was going to be a Kenny Gainwell problem when people were losing their minds on Twitter after he weighed in at 201lbs and ran a 4.52 40-yard dash.
It makes him close to the most average athlete at the NFL RB position of all time.
He's a phenomenal pass-catcher, but he's also a 5th round pick. That for better or worse begins and ends any argument. There isn't a position in which draft capital is more important for predicting fantasy success. It's the most predictive statistic of any.
Over the last 10 years (since 2010), there have been 107 RBs drafted in Rounds 5-7. Just 10 of them have delivered at least a single RB2 season, just top 24 and only 9.3%. Six of them have delivered an RB1 season - Aaron Jones, Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Jay Ajayi & Chris Carson. Some people have compared Gainwell to Aaron Jones. But you'll notice the other 5 are not pass-catchers - they fell into a workhorse role as a bigger back, volume leads to fantasy points.
The Eagles backfield isn't exactly wide open for opportunity either. There's not question Miles Sanders is the starter here, and despite what we saw last year, a pretty good pass-catching running back. Boston Scott is here, they resigned Jordan Howard, signed Kerryon Johnson which probably means at least one of these guys isn't making the team. But regardless, backfield looking like a college campus McDonalds at 2am shit is crowded.
Can Gainwell be a hit, yeah sure, but it's an uphill battle and a 2nd round rookie price is way too high when guys like Amari Rodgers, even D'Wayne Eskridge a 2nd round pick, I'd take Kellen Mond before Gainwell.
I get it, he was a fun prospect, but take someone else or move the pick. The value in the late 2nd/early 3rd round of rookie drafts just isn't there this year.
Tutu Atwell - Los Angeles Rams (Louisville)
Current ADP: 3.10 (Superflex)
NFL Draft - Round 2, Pick 25 (57)
Man, I don't think I can find a pick I like less than this one in the entire NFL draft.
I mean, 155lbs.
Instead of drafting a guy like Terrace Marshall who will wind up being what the Rams thought they were getting in Van Jefferson, they decided to draft a player that Aaron Donald is soon to mistake for a towel boy in Tutu Atwell.
Schematically, I’d like to think I understand the thought process here. The draft capital will forever astound me, but chasing a Brandin Cooks replacement for Matthew Stafford’s cannon arm adds up. It was just a few year ago (2018) that Cooks was shipped to LA where he’d pop off for a career-high 1,272 yards on 80 catches. They signed DeSean Jackson to do that in 2021. But no one that resides outside of an insane asylum would bet actual currency on Jackson staying healthy for any significant amount of time. Regardless, Jackson isn’t going to sit on the bench if his legs stay intact, so Tutu’s path to playing time as a rookie won’t be mowed for him.
On top of the opportunity being evasive for Atwell, there are some obvious, glaring differences between Tutu Atwell and Brandin Cooks as players. Cooks was not a rookie, instead a veteran player when he landed in LAR. A player with three consecutive 1000-yard seasons leading up to his time in Hollywood. You can probably count on two fingers how many times these words have been uttered, but Cooks legitimately has 35 pounds on Tutu Atwell. And to make matters worse for Flatwell, Cooks has elite speed (4.33), Tutu was believed to, but doesn’t (4.44).
Despite all of that, there’s no denying that the role was fruitful for Cooks. And that role encompasses EXACTLY what Tutu’s role was at Louisville. Take the middle of the field out of the equation completely. Cooks targets were either seeds downfield you needed a pair of binoculars to see, or bubble screens behind the line of scrimmage.
Among all NFL WRs in 2018, Cooks ranked 9th in deep receptions (11) and 11th in both deep targets (24) and yards (370).
Among all NFL WRs in 2018, Cooks ranked 1st in screen yards (157) and 4th in both screen targets (18) and 4th in screen receptions (17) per PFF.
If nothing else, it’s something to work off of in favor of the snack-sized Cardinal.
But 155lbs man... Woods, Kupp both extended.
Larry Rountree - Los Angeles Chargers (Missouri)
Current ADP: 3.12
NFL Draft - Round 6, Pick 14 (198)
Going ahead of Elijah Mitchell, who's in just as bad of a situation, but is actually good at football and wildly athletic in an offense that carousels 6th round RB studs into fantasy football. He's going ahead of 3rd round Anthony Schwartz. Just no.
On his absolute best day, Rountree is a 0.15th of a second slower version of Alex Collins. He's a guy that people waste their time hyping up because he's "tough" and he "falls forward" which does us absolutely no fucking good in fantasy football.
If you took Rountree and made him athletic, you'd get Joshua Kelley, who the Chargers already have. Was Kelley good last year? No, I never thought he was good, I always thought his best attribute was just his availability. And that was correct. Rountree is worse than Kelley.
Rountree will be 24 by the time this season is up. He's older than Alexander Mattison, A.J. Dillon, Josh Jacobs, basically every back from this year's class and last year's and as you can see, some of the 2019 running backs.
Being a pick this late gives Rountree just as much of a chance to make the roster as it does for him to get cut.
End of the day, he's just too slow to be a real threat in this backfield, or any backfield.
Ian Book - New Orleans Saints (Notre Dame)
Just absolutely no
He's so bad
What are you hoping for to happen here. Winston flames out, they let Taysom walk and Ian Book slides in as the starter?
Please don't waste a pick on Ian Book, even in superflex.
Realistically, I would trade away as many mid-round picks for next years picks as I could. Trade two thirds for a third and a second next year. Trade two thirds for a second next year, idgaf. But everyone in here stinks big time.