Best Ball Deep Dive Ownership %
Steven Mullen here with another Best Ball article. In this one we are going to take a look at Ownership % in depth and answering the most common questions associated with ownership %. Keep in mind the article is written from the perspective of 12 team leagues. In a 12 team league the average ownership of a player drafted in every draft is 8.3% If you are above 8.3% you are above 1 share to the average teams 1 share or "above the field".
What is the maximum ownership % you want to have on a player?
The answer is it depends on how much draft capital you are using on that player. The higher the draft capital the lower my max % is. Keep in mind players can have huge jumps/falls in ADP over months. It is easier to lower your % on a player then to raise it. All you have to do is not draft them to lower it.
Rounds 1-3 Players I am drafting in rounds 1-3 I like to keep no higher then 16%. At 16% this gives you 2 shares to the average teams 1. That is plenty enough to gain a significant advantage over the field on players you like best. My highest owned player round 1-3 is Travis Kelce at 17%. Kelce I often take as early as pick 9 to get his positional advantage.
Rounds 4-9 Players I am drafting rounds 4-9 I like to keep no higher then 25%. At 25% this gives you 3 shares to the average teams 1. We start to bump the % here as the draft capital goes down. Rounds 4-6 showed the poorest value based on ADP of any rounds in 2018. You should be targeting your favorite players in this range a lot. My highest owned players in this range are Darrell Henderson 30%, David Montgomery 23%, Mike Williams 23% and Calvin Ridley 21%. Henderson I was able to get a lot of when he was much cheaper. If you are just starting drafting now I would target 12% or 1.5 share to the average 1 for Henderson. David Montgomery at 23% I still think is an ADP value in round 4. The 2 WR Calvin Ridley and Mike Williams are my 2 favorites to have big break out seasons in this range so I am targeting them much higher then the other WR in this range.
Rounds 10-18 Players I am drafting rounds 10-18 I like to keep no higher then 32%. At 32% you will have 4 shares to the average teams 1. Here is where most of the people that are successful in fantasy gain the biggest advantage. The players you feel the strongest on having huge seasons in this range you should be owning the most of. My highest owned players in this range are Justice Hill 36% and Mark Andrews 33%. I am not currently worried about being over 32% on Justice Hill. It's a long way until I am done drafting and I believe he will have a massive ADP spike during preseason. I would be comfortable at 50% going into preseason. Similarly I had Darrell Henderson at a 57% 3 weeks after the NFL draft as I was predicting a huge ADP jump for him. Andrews is another one of my favorite values in this range I feel he has low end TE 1 upside and it still isn't too much of a fight to get shares of him.
What are other ownership levels and what types of players should you own at those levels?
12% At 12% we are going to have 1.5 shares to the average 1. I like to own a lot of the players I love talent wise but not as much ADP wise at this level like Mahomes for example. I also like this ownership level for players I believe can make huge steps forward but don't want to be over exposed to if they fail or get injured example being Dalvin Cook. It's also the ownership level I like for my favorite hand cuff plus guys. Handcuffs I like that have a chance at week to week work without injury like Alexander Mattison and Chase Edmonds.
8% At 8% we will be right with the field at 1 share to the average 1. I like to own a lot of the super high upside guys that I dislike their ADP at 8% examples being Aaron Jones, OJ Howard. Another type of player I like to keep right at 8% are super talented players where breaking news can shoot their ADP up or down. I want to be right with the field and able to adjust to new news and go above or below the field quickly examples being Tyreek Hill and Melvin Gordon.
5% At 5% we are still above a half share to the average 1. Players I like to have in this range are guys I feel are extreme injury risks with nice upsides examples being Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. I also like to have players where I think reaching their ceilings is super unlikely this season do to poor team situations like Kenyan Drake and Phillip Lindsay.
3% At 3% we have 1 share to the average teams 3. Players in this range are my 2019 fades. Players I would not draft in redraft leagues but want to mitigate risk of them doing well when owning 50+ teams(300 teams for me). Examples here being, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, Cooper Kupp, Sammy Watkins, Kareem Hunt.
1-2% There is a subset of players I am interested in 1-2%. These are players that I like that mostly go undrafted. My deepest sleepers biggest risks, handcuffs I feel other Best Ball players might not have in their pool at all. I think with this type of player even 1-2% ownership can benefit if these players hit ceiling because they will be largely unowned. Players in my 1-2% range Benny Snell, Quadree Ollison, Miles Boykin, DJ Chark, Mo Alie-Cox, Tony Pollard.
Final note these are Target ownership %. Keep in mind you will own players at a ton of percentages in between.
Good Luck in your drafts!