5 Players to Let Your IDIOT Leaguemates Draft in 2021 Fantasy Football
Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons
Underdog ADP (QB15)
Sleeper SuperFlex ADP (64 | 6.04 - QB15)
What a bold take by me. A QB who is losing arguably the greatest WR talent of all time
is going to struggle?
Like I said in yesterday's mock draft video, Ryan "thrived" solely on volume last year. He finished as the QB12, despite leading the NFL in pass attempts....
Imagine a running back leading the league in carries and finishing as the RB12. Or a WR leading the league in targets and finishing as WR12.
Without Dirk Koetter gone, and an improved defense, their passing volume is going way down. So you have a mid-volume QB, with mehhh efficiency, behind an offensive who ranked 23rd in pass-blocking last year and enters this year with the 24th ranked pbing line (per PFF)..... I'll pass big time.
These are just not the guys you want to be taking in fantasy. In 1QB leagues you shoot for upside - Ryan doesn't have that anymore. In SF, yes you can lean towards safety at your QB2 spot, but guys like Kirk Cousins and Bakey Mayfield are going in the same area and I'd prefer both of them.
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons
Underdog ADP (46 | 4.10 - TE4)
Sleeper SuperFlex ADP (38 | 4.02 - TE4)
On that note, Ryan's tight end. Highest draft capital, blah blah blah. Can't tell you anything you didn't already know about Pitts at this point in the summer.
If he has the single greatest rookie fantasy season ever, half ppr that's Evan Engram in 2017, in PPR its Jeremy Shockey in 2002, that would've ranked TE4 in half ppr, and TE5 in PPR. That's just not where I want to be using my 3rd round draft capital.
If you're not posting elite TE numbers, the Kelce, Kittle, Waller type, you're not worth taking in fantasy.
Having a good player at a position is NOT the same as having a positional advantage. It's really important to understand that.
Pitts might have a GREAT season. 60-700-6. One of the better TE rookie seasons ever. Still not even close to warranting his price tag right now - not baking in any risk here. At all. We have TJ Hockenson who ALREADY just saw 100+ targets last year and now there's not more Golladay or Marvin Jones, going to rounds after Pitts? That's crazy to me.
Pitts is exciting, and someone in your league is going to get excited about him - but don't be the one drafting him in the 4th round of redraft leagues plz.
Odell Beckham Jr. - Browns
Underdog ADP (57 | 5.09)
Sleeper SuperFlex ADP
Idk who needs to hear this but Odell Beckham is about to turn 29 and has an injury history longer than a CVS receipt.
We literally saw him play a full 16 game season in Cleveland in 2019: he was out-targeted, out-caught, out-yardaged, out-TD'd by Jarvis Landry.
And now pile on another big time injury - the ACL tear. I know they've become easier to come byke from but I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to younger players for that. Major injuries are much easier to come back from when you're 23 or 24, not 29, after having like 9 injuries before it as well.
Let someone else chase prime Odell in your draft for the 4th year in a row.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - Steelers
Underdog ADP (79 | 7.07)
Sleeper SuperFlex ADP
JuJu is in an offense where he's now the 4th best option.
Diontae Johnson is an elite separator
Chase Claypool is coming off of a stellar rookie year and was limited in play-time, that's destined to spike
And we have Najee Harris coming in as a first round pick who's going to command 20+ touches/game.
Don't be surprised if JuJu isn't in on many 2WR sets this year. He's by far and away the worst separator in the WR group:
James Robinson - Jaguars
It's hard not to look at what James Robinson did last year and get excited, but similar to Leonard Fournette's big seasons for the Jags, he was given a massive opportunity share in this offense. And James Robinson led NFL RBs last year in opportunity share.
Everything about the Jags offense has hit a refresh button.
The first things new HC Urban Meyer did to confirm that James Robinson was the guy, was sign Carlos Hyde and draft Travis Etienne in the first round.
There goes maybe 30% of his carries, and a LOT of his targets. What happens on the GL? Who knows. Robinson only had 5 GL carries last year, if we're looking at the numbers. and Lawrence is a good running QB, whose to say he isn't the Josh Allen in Jacksonville and takes 30-40% of the GL work? It's going to get fucking weird in Jacksonville.
Robinson will be a bit like Josh Jacobs last year, with less volume. In games they win (Vegas - 6.5), we can project him to get a lot of work. I won't be surprised when he has like 2-3 games of 20+ carries with 1-2 TDs. Definitely going to happen, but definitely going to happen in a very limited capacity.